Entscheidung
11 cards from across every topic, each citing a source. Tap one to open it in the feed.
- 200 saved or 400 dead: same numbers, opposite decision.
In 1981 Tversky and Kahneman described a disease threatening 600 people. Program A saves 200 for sure. Program B saves …
- A spinning wheel changes how many African UN states you guess.
In 1974 Tversky and Kahneman spun a rigged wheel that stopped at 10 or 65. Participants then estimated the share of …
- An officer who didn't believe the computer in 1983.
On 26 September 1983, the Soviet early-warning system reported the launch of five US missiles. Duty officer Lieutenant …
- And then what? The question most decision-makers skip.
First-order thinking sees the direct effect: a bounty on rats reduces rats. Second-order thinking asks "And then?": in …
- Don't trust advice from someone who loses nothing if wrong.
Skin in the game means whoever decides bears the consequences. Babylon's Code of Hammurabi had builders executed if …
- Good enough beats perfect, and makes you happier.
Herbert Simon coined the term satisficing in 1956: instead of hunting for the best option, you set a threshold in …
- Losing 100 euros hurts more than winning 100 euros feels good.
Kahneman and Tversky showed that losses weigh roughly twice as heavily as equal gains. Most people refuse a bet with a …
- One checkbox on a form decides organ donor rates.
In 2003 Johnson and Goldstein compared European countries. Where people must actively opt in, 4 to 28 percent were …
- The money's gone whether or not you finish the film.
Sunk costs are paid and won't come back: the 12-euro cinema ticket, three years in the wrong degree. Rationally, only …
- The real price of anything is what you give up for it.
Opportunity cost is the value of the best alternative you don't choose. A €20,000 car also costs what that money would …
- Winning the auction is evidence you bid too much.
When everyone estimates the same unknown value, the optimist with the highest estimate wins. That is exactly why the …