Bias
12 cards from across every topic, each citing a source. Tap one to open it in the feed.
- 200 saved or 400 dead: same numbers, opposite decision.
In 1981 Tversky and Kahneman described a disease threatening 600 people. Program A saves 200 for sure. Program B saves …
- A 99 percent accurate test, and you're still probably healthy.
A disease affects 1 in 10,000. The test detects it 99 percent of the time and gives 1 percent false alarms in healthy …
- A spinning wheel changes how many African UN states you guess.
In 1974 Tversky and Kahneman spun a rigged wheel that stopped at 10 or 65. Participants then estimated the share of …
- Imagine the project has failed. Now explain why.
Gary Klein developed the pre-mortem: before starting, the team imagines a year has passed and the project has failed …
- Losing 100 euros hurts more than winning 100 euros feels good.
Kahneman and Tversky showed that losses weigh roughly twice as heavily as equal gains. Most people refuse a bet with a …
- People who know little often can't tell.
Dunning and Kruger found in 1999 that participants in the bottom quarter on logic and grammar tests rated themselves …
- The bullet holes nobody saw saved the bombers.
In the Second World War the US military wanted to armour planes where returning aircraft had the most bullet holes. …
- The tailgater is a jerk, you were just stressed.
You explain other people's behaviour by their character and your own by the situation. In 1967 Jones and Harris had …
- Why sharks feel more dangerous than the water itself.
Your brain judges probability by how easily examples come to mind. Anything dramatic and in the news feels frequent. …
- Why your deadline always takes longer than planned.
In 1994 Buehler and colleagues asked students when they'd finish their thesis. The average estimate was 34 days …
- You like things simply because you've seen them before.
In 1968 Robert Zajonc showed participants Chinese characters at different frequencies. The more often a character …
- You're not searching for truth, you're searching for confirmation.
Confirmation bias means you notice, remember and actively seek information that fits what you already believe. Peter …