Mind & EverydayMental model

The explanation with the fewest assumptions usually wins.

William of Ockham stated in the 14th century that one shouldn't multiply assumptions beyond necessity. If your car won't start, a dead battery is more likely than sabotage plus an electronics fault plus coincidence. Every extra assumption must itself be true, which lowers the overall probability. Simple isn't automatically right, but it's the best starting point.

Useful: Count the assumptions behind two explanations and test the one with fewer first.

Source: en.wikipedia.org

DenkenMental model

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