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How to find out that your estimates are too narrow.

Don't estimate a value, estimate a range you're 90 percent sure contains the truth. If you were calibrated, the answer would fall inside 9 times out of 10. In studies the hit rate is often only about 50 percent. Log ten estimates and count.

Useful: When in doubt, double the width of your range – that's usually where honesty starts.

Source: en.wikipedia.org

DenkwerkzeugeEntscheidungen

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Question on this card

How often do people's "90 percent intervals" actually contain the right answer?

  1. About 90 percent
  2. Often only about 50 percent
  3. Almost always 100 percent
  4. About 20 percent
Show the answer

Correct: Often only about 50 percent

Hit rates often fall to roughly half – the intervals are drawn too narrow.

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