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Why a record is almost always followed by a weaker result.

Every measurement is skill plus chance. An extreme result usually included extreme luck, and luck doesn't repeat. The athlete on the magazine cover plays worse afterward; the patient at rock bottom feels better after any treatment. Not because of curses or miracles, but because outliers statistically drift back toward the average.

Useful: Before you credit praise, criticism or a therapy for a change, check whether it was just a return to normal.

Source: en.wikipedia.org

DenkfehlerIntuitionStatistik

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